Takaichi’s Taiwan Remarks Ignite East Asia, Triggering Fierce China–Japan Confrontation

On November 7, Japan’s newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi told a budget committee in the House of Representatives that a “Taiwan contingency” could amount to a “survival-threatening situation,” potentially allowing Japan to exercise its right to collective self-defense. Chinese media interpreted her remarks as signaling that Japan might intervene militarily in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Takaichi’s comments set off a fierce reaction in China.

On Monday, China’s Foreign Ministry issued three pointed questions in response to Takaichi’s “erroneous” remarks on Taiwan: What signal does she intend to send to “Taiwan independence” forces? Is Japan trying to challenge China’s core interests and obstruct China’s reunification? And where exactly does Japan intend to take China–Japan relations?

Takaichi, however, doubled down in subsequent meeting on November 10 and later, insisting her remarks were consistent with the Japanese government’s long-standing position and saying she had no intention of withdrawing them.

In the meantime, a fiery social-media post by Xue Jian, China’s consul general in Osaka, ignited a storm of controversy. Posting on X, Xue wrote that Japan’s framing of the Taiwan issue as a threat to its own survival was “a deadly path chosen by foolish politicians.” He added: “If you dare stretch that filthy neck into a place it does not belong, I will cut it off. Are you ready?”

Japanese politicians quickly seized on Xue’s comment. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said Monday that Tokyo had lodged a protest with Beijing. Bloomberg quoted a Chinese diplomat as saying that “some Japanese politicians and media are deliberately hyping this up to sow confusion and divert attention — this is irresponsible.”

Xue later deleted the contentious post, but pushed back against what he called malicious misinterpretations. “I urge you to stop overreading and distorting the facts based on your own imagination,” he wrote in a new post. “The root of the problem lies with Japanese politicians who, despite our repeated opposition, keep declaring that ‘a Taiwan crisis is a Japan crisis.’ By your logic, that is clearly a ‘threat of annihilation’ against China.”

On November 16, China’s Ministry of Education issued its 2025 Study-Abroad Warning No. 4, advising Chinese citizens to carefully reconsider plans to study in Japan. Major Chinese airlines also offered free ticket-change services for passengers wishing to alter Japan-bound itineraries.

Takaichi’s remarks set off not only strong backlash in China, but significant uproar in Japan as well. On Thursday, former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba publicly questioned her comments during a radio program, saying her language came “very close” to the notion that “a Taiwan contingency is a Japanese contingency.” On the 14th, Japanese political figures and several civic groups from Okinawa held a rally in Tokyo demanding that the government explain its ongoing military buildup in Okinawa and expressing alarm over Takaichi’s “erroneous” statement. Anti-war activists from Okinawa said Takaichi’s remarks were “intolerable” and called for her resignation.

On the evening of November 15, hundreds of Japanese citizens gathered spontaneously in front of the Prime Minister’s Office in Tokyo. Protesters chanted slogans such as “Withdraw your remarks — apologize now,” “Takaichi resign,” and “A prime minister who can’t handle diplomacy is unfit for office,” demanding that she step down.

Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou wrote on Facebook on November 15: “Prime Minister Takaichi’s recent rash comments — misapplying the concept of collective self-defense and stirring up tensions across the Taiwan Strait, prompting a strong reaction from the mainland — are deeply worrying.”

During “Global South Academic Forum 2025” held in Shanghai on November 13, the nationalist-leaning outlet Guancha interviewed three participants about the implications of Takaichi’s remarks for the East Asian security environment and about U.S. policy toward Japan and China. We have translated portions of those interviews to help readers better understand the sharp dispute unfolding between Beijing and Tokyo.

The three interviewees were: Lin Boyao, former director of the China Overseas Friendship Association and representative of the Japan–China Exchange Promotion Association; Shu Ogata, researcher at the East Asia Community Institute and visiting professor at Okinawa University; and Kunio Arakaki, executive director of the “No More Battle of Okinawa – Life is Precious Society.”

Guancha: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi recently said that a “survival-threatening situation” could justify Japan’s military involvement in a Taiwan conflict. How serious do you consider Takaichi’s reckless interference in China’s internal affairs and her challenge to the postwar international order?

Lin Boyao: What worries me is that Japan now seems to view Taiwan as a potential theater of war, as if it is trying to reassert control over regional affairs. This poses a grave challenge to the postwar order in Asia and throws a bomb into what had been a relatively stable China–Japan relationship. To me, her remarks signal the rise of a new form of Japanese hegemonism that must be taken seriously. We should stand alongside the Chinese people and firmly oppose such dangerous moves.

I say this partly because of my own childhood experiences. During World War II, many Chinese traders — including members of my own family — were suspected of being spies, arrested, tortured, and even killed. It makes me fear that the era in which even legally registered “foreigners” could be targeted might be returning. That sense of crisis and dread is very real to me.

That said, I still believe in the Japanese people. There are many in Japan who have spent years reflecting deeply on the country’s history. Their voices may be faint right now, but as someone who has lived in Japan for decades, I have met many trustworthy individuals. I hope to work with them to resist any revival of Japanese militarism.

Shu Ogata: I am deeply worried about Prime Minister Takaichi’s remarks. She is Japan’s first female prime minister and currently enjoys high approval ratings, but I fear what dangerous decisions she might make moving forward. And for us in Okinawa, the sense of crisis is even stronger.

Kunio Arakaki: Like Ogata, I am from Okinawa. For years, we have opposed the government’s push to strengthen its military posture on the grounds that “a Taiwan contingency is a Japanese contingency.” After watching Takaichi’s remarks on television, I wrote an article for Okinawan media expressing my concerns. Her statement that a Taiwan conflict constitutes a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan is extremely serious — she should withdraw it.

Here is why. Former Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Taro Aso both said — as politicians — that “a Taiwan contingency is a Japanese contingency,” implying that Taiwan concerns Japan’s “survival.” But Takaichi is now the sitting prime minister, the highest official in the Japanese government. This is the first time a Japanese leader in that position has expressed such a view so clearly and explicitly. It is extraordinarily serious and dangerous — unacceptable and intolerable.

How do the people of Okinawa view this? The editorial headline of the Ryukyu Shimpo put it clearly: “The Japanese Government Should Uphold Diplomacy That Prevents Conflict.” Takaichi’s remarks were reckless, inflamed tensions, and heightened the risk of war. Online and offline, people — including Mr. Lin — have voiced a deep sense of crisis.

Right now, in preparation for a “Taiwan contingency,” the Self-Defense Forces have already deployed missiles in Okinawa. If the United States intervenes, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces would automatically be drawn in under the U.S.–Japan security framework — making Okinawa the front line of any conflict.

Given the enormous loss of Okinawan lives during World War II, we have an acute fear of history repeating itself. Takaichi’s comments are irresponsible and unbefitting of a prime minister. They place Okinawa in direct danger. China possesses nuclear weapons; if war breaks out between Japan and China, Okinawa would bear the brunt — but the entire country would be engulfed in flames.

Guancha: You just mentioned Prime Minister Takaichi’s high approval ratings, which reflect a certain level of public support for her stance. From your perspective as a long-time Chinese resident in Japan, where do Japanese prejudices against Chinese people come from? And how can they be overcome?

Lin Boyao: Since Shinzo Abe returned to office for his second term, public opinion polls have shown that nearly 90 percent of Japanese respondents say they “dislike China” or have “unfavorable feelings” toward China. The root cause is that Japanese politicians and major media outlets have continuously pushed narratives that are unfavorable — or even outright false — about China. At the core of that narrative is the “China threat theory,” which portrays China as a potential menace to regional and international order.

In daily life, television constantly airs reports like “Chinese fighter jets approaching” or “Chinese vessels sighted in the South China Sea,” with these narratives repeatedly amplified. Negative stories about Chinese individuals also appear frequently. Over time, this steady stream of unfavorable messaging from politicians and mainstream media has shaped public perceptions, fueling rising hostility toward China. As someone who has lived in Japan for many years, I find this deeply worrying — even frightening.

During the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake, more than 6,000 Koreans and nearly 800 Chinese residents in Japan were massacred, with perpetrators including the Japanese military, police, and ordinary citizens. I cannot help but wonder whether such an era could return. When you constantly instill ideas like “China is bad” or “Chinese people are bad,” especially in the minds of the most extreme elements in society, it is impossible to predict what they might do.

In the last House of Councillors election, although the LDP lost some votes, right-wing groups with xenophobic and anti-foreigner platforms — including the Sanseito Party and certain members of Osaka Ishin — won seats in the Diet. Forces openly hostile to foreigners, especially to Chinese people, are growing in Japan. I fear this trend may continue. In that sense, Takaichi’s recent remarks act almost like “sowing seeds” that will further nurture such forces. In the long term, this would be deeply regrettable for both China and Japan.

Since the normalization of diplomatic ties, China and Japan have built substantial economic and cultural exchanges. Nearly one-third of Japan’s national budget is tied to trade with China; this economic relationship benefits not only China but also delivers concrete returns to the Japanese public through tax revenues and related channels. Yet some people ignore these facts and instead steer public discourse toward excluding China. This troubles me greatly. That is why I believe we must speak out clearly and firmly against this trend in Japanese politics.

I also hope the Japanese public will speak up. I have long worked in local-level China–Japan exchanges, and I follow politicians like Takaichi closely. She is a vice-chair of the Diet group affiliated with Nippon Kaigi — Japan’s largest right-wing organization — and a prominent denialist of Japan’s wartime history.

Nippon Kaigi has long denied the Nanjing Massacre and whitewashed Japan’s aggression. Takaichi sits at the top of this organization. It is foreseeable that she will advance more than just one or two controversial initiatives. That is why we must make our opposition clear and unwavering.

As for Consul-General Xue Jian’s warning that “whoever dares stick their head toward Taiwan will have it cut off,” this was not merely one man’s emotion. It expresses the collective sentiment of the Chinese people — a feeling built up over many years. Given this, I believe it is essential to continue speaking out.

Kunio Arakaki: I would add that, as Professor Lin said, Japanese politicians often follow media sentiment. China’s negative image spreads widely, and while 90 percent of the public holds unfavorable views of China, most of these people have never been to China or met Chinese friends. Their prejudices are second-hand.

We touched on trade and tourism earlier — I believe people-to-people exchange is crucial. More Chinese should come to Japan, and more Japanese should visit China. When people see that “they’re just like us,” mutual understanding grows. These issues cannot be solved only by experts; young people in their 20s and 30s also need to take part, whether through music, culture, or other forms of exchange.

In Okinawa, we have traditional protests where older people raise their fists. But we also need youth-driven activities that promote peace and friendship in diverse ways. I arrived in Shanghai yesterday to attend this forum, and everyone — including university and graduate student volunteers — treated me warmly.

I hope we can hold similar events in Okinawa, involve Okinawan youth, and let young people on both sides get to know each other. Through such exchanges, mutual perceptions will gradually change. For Okinawa and for Japan as a whole, it is important for people to understand that Chinese people are no different from us.

Shu Ogata: Professor Lin mentioned that China–Japan trade accounts for nearly one-third of Japan’s national budget. Yet many Japanese people have no idea how deep those economic ties go. Why quarrel with a neighboring country? Why view China as a threat? I honestly don’t understand what lies behind such thinking.

There have been calls in parts of Japan to expel Chinese diplomats, but coming from Okinawa, I’m not fully attuned to that mainland rhetoric. What puzzles me is why the Japanese media is fixated entirely on the consul’s remarks and not focusing on other issues. This reflects a decline in the quality of the national media — though Okinawa’s media landscape is very different from that of mainland Japan.

As I said earlier, for 80 years since the war, we in Okinawa have been reporting on and researching why the war happened. Take Mr. Takamatsu Gushiken, who is here at the Global South Forum — he has spent years collecting the remains of war victims to hold the Japanese government accountable. Looking at the long arc of history, it is clear that the Japanese government manipulated historical truths and misled the Japanese people.

My personal view is that the controversy over Takaichi’s remarks will probably die down soon. But the idea of pan-Asianism — which exists in both Japan and China — should not be entirely dismissed; it has its positive aspects. Asian peoples should live together in peace. Talking about “survival-threatening crises” belongs to the outdated logic of colonialism. If the Japanese prime minister still clings to such rotten ideas, Japan has no future.

As for what happens next, I can only hope Japan’s prime minister won’t be that foolish — and that the Japanese public won’t be that foolish either. That is my sincere hope.

Guancha: After Sanae Takaichi made her inaccurate remarks, President Trump was asked by reporters about the war of words between China and Japan. He responded by saying that “many allies are not really our friends,” avoiding any criticism of China or a clear show of support for Japan. As a resident of the Ryukyu Islands, how do you view the U.S. presence here and Washington’s stance toward Japan?

Arakaki Kunio: President Trump’s remarks reflect one of his defining traits. As I mentioned earlier at the meeting, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby shares a similar mindset: they care only about their own economic and financial gains. I don’t believe Trump would willingly start a war in East Asia that brings no benefit to the United States. What he wants is simply to further expand America’s economic interests in the region.

However, there are politicians within the U.S. government who hold militaristic views, and there are quite a few of them on the National Security Council. But these figures have lost influence under the current Trump administration.

What we are seeing now resembles the situation in Ukraine: the United States hopes to use Japan to launch a proxy war against China. It is impossible for the U.S. to confront China directly with nuclear weapons. So instead, they are stirring up Japan’s Self-Defense Forces to initiate a conflict with China, while selling Japan Tomahawk cruise missiles—and profiting from it.

Then there is the issue of U.S. military bases. The U.S. has bases across Japan and Okinawa, but it has no territorial ambitions here. It simply uses Japan as a platform—a place where bases can serve their strategic purpose. Japan functions as a deployment hub for the U.S. military, whether for involvement in Vietnam, Korea, or even during the Gulf War. America’s objectives will not extend beyond this role, nor will they be reduced.

But when it comes to a so-called “Taiwan contingency,” the U.S. could deploy forces from Okinawa, or from bases in mainland Japan or South Korea. This would inevitably drag Okinawa into war, and its people would become casualties. Americans do not care about that at all. All they care about is being able to use the bases whenever they want. They have no concern for the people who live in Okinawa. The relationship between Okinawa and the United States is purely one of exploitation. And the people of Okinawa do not wish to be exploited.

Japanese citizens are also being used—they are caught up in the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty. And there are people in Japan who oppose this. That is why the Japanese people must think carefully about what truly matters to them. They should not approach this issue from the perspective of the security treaty, but from the perspective of Japan’s own national interests.

The views expressed in this article represent those of the author(s) and not those of The Carter Center.